After one year, what would be the situation of
1) King
2) Democratic parties
3) Maoists?

I think
1) King would be still in power but more unpopular.
2) Democratic parties: NC and NC_D will be merged, Girija will be out of politics, UML will lead the andolan, RPP will support the government,. But overall, parties will be popular among people.
3) Maoist will also split: one small faction will join the other parties andolan, rest will be doing war as usual.


What you think?

If I were to guess, most probably, Nepali bhai, broadly speaking, the situation wil be status quo. King would still rule the roost. Political parties would be in sidelines. Girija would probably be dead or near death, not because of foul play, but just because of his old age. Maoists would still dominate the rural areas.

Now, marginally speaking, I think King's forces would gain some grounds. The larger cities would come under King's control. But not much more.

I am not sure if Maoist would split.

के को १ वर्षको कुरा गर्नुहुन्छ?
१०० दिन पछि भन्नुस् न।

राजाको लोकपृयता घट्नेछ। सहि हो तर पनि राजाले राम्रो गर्दैछन् भनेर विस्वास गर्नेहरु सकिने छैनन्। अरु आशा नदेखेर बिस्वास गर्नूपर्ने बध्यता रहेने नै छ।
रानैतिक दलका कुरा? हिजो सुन्नु भे न बि बि सि? राजनैतिक दलले गल्ति गरेको स्विकारेका छन् ।तर पनि प्रजातन्त्र प्रजातन्त्र भनेर कराउनेहरु बाँकि नै रहनेछन् कुन पार्टि कता कुन पार्टि कता त हुँदै जाला तर यसले झिँगा मार्न पनि सक्दैन।
नेता भन्नेहरु १०० दिन भित्रमा निस्किन्छन् कति घर जान्छन् कति जक्काजाम गर्न।
साही सेना अपेक्षाकृतरुपमा न भे पनि बलियो हुँदै जान्छ। युद्द त हुनुपर्यो नि काम चलाऊ।
तर माओबादी आक्रमणलाई आंशिक असफल पारेर ठुलो काम गरेम् भनेर रेडियोबाट फुक्ने काम जारी नै हुन्छ।

माओबादी सेना पनि बलियो हुँदै जान्छ, बेलाबेला नेपाल बन्द गरेर १ वर्षमा ६ महिना नेपाल बन्द गर्दै जालान्। तर यसले पनि राजाको आगंको झिंगो मर्दैन।

यहाँभन्दा कस्टप्रद जनजिवन आउँछ।
नेपाल फेल्ड स्टेटमै कायम रहनेछ तर लैजान पनि कसैले लैजादैन यो थोत्रो ट्रक पार्किगं खर्चको मात्र समस्या।
तपाईँलाई चाहिन्छ मेरो थोत्रो फ्रिज?

Good guess, Nepali bhai. The first two possibilites are beyond resonable doubt. I do not think the third is likey to happen though. We have been talking about a split in the Maoist ranks for sometime now. No doubt internal divisions will remain, but I don't think the party's going to break though. Either the whole party will be taken in confidence by other political parties--though there will be dissents within the maoists, no doubt--or vice-versa. The open split of the Maoists will only embolden the Royalists. I think maoists understand this well. Even if there are factions inside the party, which i think is the case, it is unlikely that they would to anything to make their case weaker.

Tara, aauta kura, tyo 78 hajaar sankya-ko SENA (army) le katti maobadhi control garera sakchha ra ? lau bhanu na 75 wota jilla ma 1000 (1/1 hajar) sena rekhe pani, tesle ta harmo jasto pahadi jilla ma kasari mao-lai control garla?

jaha samma lagchha, raja ko sakti, katmandu, pokhara ko city area, tarai ko kehi jilla ma, jaha army ko pahuch le bhyauchha tya matrai simit hola. tyo kura ta yojana-bidh harulai nai thaha hola.

Nepali Bhai dude

On what basis can you say that the political parties that is already down the drain will be popular again ?

The other thing is on what basis can you say that any splinter group of Maoist will ever join 5 party andalon ? Yeaa they might sneak ito political parties as undercover to advocate their own Maoist agendas, Maoists may well might use this opportunity.

Bhrasta netaa ji

Nepali people have already got the taste of freedom of at least to speak, though it may not have been a lot supportive to bolster democracy. So people will miss this freedom during one year and would support parties.

A faction of maoist will support the parties because there may be a group that is looking for a safe landing. With supporting the parties, they may may still argue and show to people that they are in republican favor.

Good analysis dada giri ji,

Post 2/1 developments are not so much encouraging for the government. The dominant hypothesis of King's advisors that international powers can not ignore the possible threat of maoist (whatever be its cost) now appears to have been failed. International powers gave clear signals that they do not want to desert political parties. However, King's step has increasingly made role of political parties IRRELEVANT in domestic politics at least in the short run. After 2/1, political parties are so humiliated (more is coming when Corruption Commission starts its bulldozer) that the task of confidence building between king and political parties is very difficult if not impossible. That means role of international powers will be not be so significant and they will largely remain passive with just a wait-and-see policy.

Who is gaining form this development?

Certainly, Maoists. Because, government needs active supports (military, financial and diplomatic) from foreign powers whereas all maoists need form international powers is not-active-opposition-to-them....which they are getting now!

Someone might argue that governmnet can run the war machine by its own resources? But it is much easier said than done. See, World Bank canceled 70 million budgetary support aid (not project or program tied aid). The key challenge for the government in the coming days would be to manage economy and government finance. When the war is escalated to a new hight, we can not expect the economy to continue as before. The effect then will be unbalanced public finance and possibility of high inflation. Increased unemployement (especially in development sector) might creat panic among middle class. We have not yet experienced such crisis as civil servants not receiving monthly pay or inflation of say over 100 %. Under such situation, winning a civil war is not an easy task.

Anyway, days of much more hardship alongwith unimagined scale of bloodshed seems to be ahead.

Lord pashupati nath le yo snakat ko ghadi ma sabai lai satbuddhi deun !

Here's an optimistic scenario:

Much like in Northern Ireland, Maoists will form a political arm which works its way into joining the mainstream of politics. Gradually, they will leave their armed stuggle and becomes a powerful political party. But for that, maybe their leadership needs to change.

Gyanendra will take the credit of solving the insurgency. He will retreat back to being Constitutional Monarch, after the election, within 3 years.

Again, this is only an optimistic scenario.

Revisit this thread.
Lets evaluate the forecast.


Fisrt point : 90% right
Second point: May be 40% (not sure)
Third point 75%

Dada's projection seems perfect.

aba ke hunchha ta emergency hate pachhi?