Hey U all there! What do u think about The People Republic of China becoming superpower later in this century? What would be the likely changes in the dynamics of world politics and security in such a changed scenario? Could you make any hypothetical assumption of such transformation? What would be the fate of the US glory? Is this transformation would be easily achieved? Can you imagine, US becoming something like The Great Britain now stands (US becoming unconditional supporter/ally)? What would be the overall prosperity of Asians? What would be the role of Nepal? Nepal would be able to formulate its policies as a sovereign and independent country? What would be the challenges and prospects of Nepal by then?

Nut

".....After an awkward silence, a few Chinese spoke about the passionate feelings in China regarding Taiwan's status. Yuan Ming, the director of the Institute of American Studies at Beijing University, alluded to the frustration that outsiders might have in seeking to understand China.

"The world needs China to play some roles," Ms. Yuan said in a polite yet weary tone. "But it's too early to rank ourselves among world nations. We do need some time to develop ourselves.".. says, one of Beida's most popular teacher of International System!

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/01/30/international/europe/30forum.html

wah wah!

doshro ki teshro hapta ma full house kaa saath chali raheko raichha...ahem!

I normally like to reserve the weekends for partying, getting drunk, playing cards, a little bit of extra las-pas...eheheh...and all other fun stuff...and try my best to refrain from discussions on gyan-goon ka kura haru.

Though I have already recovered from the hangover, the weekend's still not over yet. So, I will try to write more tomorrow mattrai hai...if I have time!

Echoes wrote:

"The gentleman also suggested that China might not suffer much even if the US stops Chinese imports. His point was that China had now identified a solid consumer base in the country itself, and was soon going to be a self-supporting economy in case of a sudden pullout of the foreign investment. So I guess my question to the experts is if that is really the case. What will happen to China if, lets say, the West stops buying the cheap Chinese goods? Is there a substance to what seems to be a rapidly inflating Chinese economy"


Hey, I am no expert, but your questions are fairly elementary, so here is my opinion.
I think, unlike the gentleman you mentioned, if tomorrow, US and Europe were to stop importing from China, that would be catastrophic to its economy. The Chinese economy would crumble down very quickly. FDI in China would dwindle substantially.

But then, again, it is highly unlikely that the US and Europe would stop buying cheap products from China for a number of reasons, among which, one is: these cheap products, and because they are affordable, are helping people in those countries enjoy high quality of life, and keep down inflation.

China is already the third largest trading nation in the world - behind US and Germany. The volume of its foreign trade exceeded one trillion dollar this year. Actually, China's foreign trade has never been so crucial to its economy than it is today. China's exports account for a significant part of its GDP. China's economic prosperity, for now, would be highly affected by its foreign-trade.

Also, China's economy is dominated by a handful of SEZ(Special Economic Zones).
For instance, Shanghai and Shenzen alone contributes for more than half of China's total foreign trade volume. Most of the businesses operating in those areas are joint-ventures, and are fuelled by foreign capital (FDIs). With abundant supply of cheap labor, China has become the most preferred source of manufacturing and/or processing for a lot of foreign companies.
*Incidently, China, last year, was the largest receipant of FDI in the world, displacing the US from the top place for the first time. As impressive as China's trade figures are, much of its international trade are done by foreign companies operating out of China.

Remember, China is still a poor country, and despite its mammoth population, its economy is still relatively small in dollar terms- which stands at $1.4 trillion, compared to US-$ 12 trillion and EU-$ 12 trillion (rough figures).
Chinese per capita income is a paltry $1000. Now, compare that to the US per capita income: $38000.

Bottom line: The consumer base is growing fast in China, but not quite there yet. But I am quite confident that the situation would be different in the next 15 years.


Disclaimer: the figures are just my estimates.

Bingo! Now analyze your own paragraph. Russia and China are potential threats to the US. This means, the US has to side with one to deter the other. This means, either US-Russia alliance against China, or China-US alliance to keep Russians in check. I think the US will go with the US-China alliance because it's more sensible. By joining hands with the Chinese, the US will make Russia spend more on its defense because an US-China alliance means Russia spending a lot of $$ on deploying troops in Siberia.

Iso Ji I do not agree with above statement. So far I have known, I believe China and Russia will maintain strategic stability with each other mainly to counter US influence in Central Asia, that may not be in the form the counter attack but by posing potential challenge. Sino-Russian relation is more stable then ever before in the history. Chinese perception of Russia is: Russia is and will remain next to super power with a major impact on regional and world affairs but will not seek hegemony. Russia should maintain territorial integrity with China (regarding your Siberia issue) in order keep its border inviolate with other former Soviet's states.

Secondly it is not up to US whether to go with Russia or with China. It will totally depend how latter countries observe the current US's maneuvers in Mid-East region. IF Sino-Russia pact has seriously deters not to seek world hegemony- I don't think they will take this granted from US side.

Here you say: From the US perspective it's presence in the Middle East and Central Asia is to keep both China and Russia in check. Bingo

If so then why it is not possible for Sino-Russian to cooperate each other to counter check on US? If you have known, US presence is merely to check Russia and China, most obviously Russian and Chinese have also known about that?


But what will happen if and when the US leaves the region? The Russians will immediately take over, which will pose a security threat to China.

I do not agree. Russians are still not ready to take over anything or anybody. The picture is broader than what it was during Cold War. Current Russia itself is facing multitude domestic problems along with conflict in Chechnya. It has to keep well alert from anti- Russian (former soviet's) states. Under such circumstances, by no means Russia will ever ignite conflicts around that region. And China do clearly understand this.

The US knows it cannot stop Russia so it won't make much noise when Japan pumps money to Russia.

I do agree to some extend and I am not surprise to know Japan pumping money to Russia. Russia, nonetheless is a dealer - exactly they are doing what they are suppose to do- Guns-for-Butter. And why should American be reluctant with such deal? But if you were talking about Japan -Russia ties, I would say relation is more volatile than that Sino-Relations. Their (Japan-Russia) territorial issue is still as hot as red iron and they will remain headstrong for sake of those four islands.

Conclusion: Sino-Russian power is getting stronger and further will be strongest if US do not change its imperialistic attitude.

Poonte,

Ramro filim housefull bhayera chalcha ni.. 2 hafta matra hoina 25 hafta.. mara-maar! 85 ota post and only 1-2 undesired comments. La will be waiting to read your points, counter points and views.

Pisces,
We are analyzing the issue from different perspectives. So its natural for you to disagree with me and vice-versa. I am kind of enjoying reading your's and poonte's views on this, and also thinking a lot to defend my views. Its been a good exchange of ideas.

"Russia is and will remain next to super power with a major impact on regional and world affairs but will not seek hegemony. Russia should maintain territorial integrity with China (regarding your Siberia issue) in order keep its border inviolate with other former Soviet's states."

Let em again disagree here. I see your point, but I have a different take on this, so allow me to express my views. Let me ask you the same question I asked Poonte: Do you believe that a country can be superpower without seeking hegemony? Has there been a peaceful rise of a superpower in the history of International System? As far as my little thinking goes, to be a real TRUE superpower, you have to be a hegemon (maybe I believe too much in realist version of IR). Russia's recent failed interfarance in Ukranian politics and Putin's last year's statement taht Russia will follow the American pre-emptive strikes policy to any place in deems fit (esp. Central Asia) to attack the bases from which the Chechnyans are getting arms and monetary support. Although chances of Russia and China going to war are next to none, but Russia's weapons and an agresive foreign policy will put China in a security dilemma. Even if it joins hands with Russia in economic and other issues, it will always feel presssured by Russia's defense capabilities. It will take China a long time to match its arsenal with that of Russia, so in the meantime, it has no options than to side with the US when it comes to security/defense issues. Of course, China will keep on criticizing the American expansionism and imperialism, like it did during teh Cold War days and which it is doing now and the official rhetoric might even sound like that of Russia, but that doesn't mean you'll have a Russia-China alliance against America. This is how I see it.

"If so then why it is not possible for Sino-Russian to cooperate each other to counter check on US? If you have known, US presence is merely to check Russia and China, most obviously Russian and Chinese have also known about that? "

Yes, I totally agree. But again given historical issues and the mistrust that developed from the 60s (the Brezhnev doctrine and the USSR invasion of Chechoslovakia) and China's growing trade relations with the USA, and Russia's developmnet of new missiles, will I think makes it more likely of a Sino-American coalition than a Sino-Russian coalition. Also when you have a superpower next door, no matter how good of a relationship you have with it, you are always suspicious of it. Again, this is how I see it.

"I do not agree. Russians are still not ready to take over anything or anybody. The picture is broader than what it was during Cold War. Current Russia itself is facing multitude domestic problems along with conflict in Chechnya. It has to keep well alert from anti- Russian (former soviet's) states. Under such circumstances, by no means Russia will ever ignite conflicts around that region. And China do clearly understand this."

Please feel free to disagree. Its by disagreeing we learn each other's perspectives. Your perspectives on things are helping me learn a lot, so please do disagree. The problem in Chechnya is the cause that Russia has to be active in the international (regional for now) arena. For the Russians, the Chechnyans are getting the help/support of the middle eastern terrorist groups, who channel the money, arms and even fighters through the Central Asian Republics. So Russia to protect its terretorial integrity has to have an agressive foreign policy..I don't say they don't have domestic problems in Russia, they do. People are angry, the economic developmnet has been slow but if you lookat Putin's victory last year, one of his major agenda was to wipe out the Chechnyan rebels. So to preserve his legitimacy and to regain partially of the lost Soviet Glory, Putin will set aside economic and other agendas for defense and military adventurism in Central Asia. One more Ajerbaijan/Armenia conflict, and a small dispute over Krygyz water ... Russia will definatley intervene. Like America, Russia will not let the Central Asian terrorism networks siding with the Chechnyans keep on attacking the Moscow Subways or killing innocent school kids. Again this is how I see it after analyzing Putin's interviews of last year.

"The US knows it cannot stop Russia so it won't make much noise when Japan pumps money to Russia. "

One shcool of thought that I have been coming across these days is: The Japanese insistnece on recreating/restructuring their Army is supported by the US. US wants to keep China in a constant security dillema, so that China will not do anything to alter the status quo regarding Taiwan which will let America keep its presence in the Pacific region..and when you are surrounded by 3 hostile powers (Japan, Russia and the US), you are likely to choose one to balance the other two. The Americans want to side with China, for the Chinese it is more sensible to side with the US (even temporarily) to ensure a steady supply of oil.. and China can use that relatively less stressful period for economic and defense development. It will help America to deter Russia because a Sino-US coalition will deter Russia from moving beyond the Central Asian states. Again my views.

alright everyone involved in this threaed, let's buy ourselves some beer! 86 posts and now gaali-galauzz, screaming, labels, slurs.. we deserve it for keeping it clean and for our long postings! :-)

Very true, ISO...it is immensely gratifying to indulge in discussions free of gaalis and slurs and condescending remarks. Cheers to everyone involved in this thread for a civilized discussions, even though we may disagree a lot of times. Now, ISO wants some beer (ki A LOT??)...I am willing to pull the tab if everyone's willing to come over! Seriously, if any of you live in or around NYC, and would like to talk politics (global or Nepali) over some madak padaarthas...just shoot me an email!

We must all remember that value of an opinion, regardless of who it comes from, is priceless. Some opinions may be uninformed, others well-informed, and yet others may be ill-informed; however, each one of them carry an EQUAL value with regards to it's contribution to the discussions. Unless, of course, one becomes condescending and/or starts to use gaali-galough as tools of his/her arguments.

Well, ISO and others...we have discussed much at length about China's role in future global politics, and at times we seemd to divulge into the discussions about other states as well. I think I will start a new thread titled "Global Issues" where anyone interested can talk about anything related to international affairs.

For now, sticking with China...

ISO, I think I can surmise our debate as the following:

1.a. I say militarism has been playing a declining role in international affairs, and will continue to do so until one day economy will take over as the key to formation of alliances and the ability to influence.

1.b. You disagree and insist that militarism will contonue to play equal, if not more, role as economy in global politics.

2.a. Therefore, regardless of how poor China's military may be, it will rise as a superpower within our lifetime because of it's immensely influential economy.

2.b. You insist that China's backwardness on military affairs vis-a-vis US and Russia will prevent it from being throned as the superpower.

One bonus comment for myself ;): I suspect that EVEN IF military will still play a very important role to the effect that poor military will be a significant obstacle to a nation's aspirations of becoming a superpower, with a sound and healthy economy, it shouldn't be difficult for China to rapidly modernize it's army.

On that disagreable but friendly note, I suppose we can agree to disagree and drink more. (I only know Tsin Tao among Chinese beers!) Only time shall tell which one of us will be proven correct.

All the rest, in the new thread! :D

Well said Poonte bro,

We can disagree without being personal. When we are discussing IR, we all have our own framework of analysis. Some like the libera perspectivel, some like the Realist perspective, and there are people who base their analysis on the Marxist perspective. I personally see a strong security/defense as the most telling feature of a superpower. But I have to admit, I am truly amazed and impressed by the ability of some of the posters.( I knew you were a pro, so was expecting your views on this.) Of course there are disagreements, and there will be in the future.

Now waiting for your threat .. oops THREAD on global issues.

Alright guys, lert's save our energy to discuss in the next thread. Let's give our brains some rest. Qing Dao, Bud, Miller, Guiness, Harp, Sierra Nevada Pale Ale, Samuel Adams, Beck, Heiniken, Corona, Carlseberg, Amstel.. or microbrews.. just grab a can/bottle/glass/pitcher of whichever you prefer..All work and no play is no life at all ! (A Jose Cuevro commercial) :-)

china being superpower!!!!!!!

yes, i think so, it is growing bigger and stronger day by day in both economic and military aspects. and guys china is not only relying in US for its exports , it is also relying on EUROPE. so as long as there is europe in this world, china is not going to loose its power, eventhough it will have conflicts with US

NOW THINK FOR ONCE THIS POINTS CAREFULLY:
IF THERE WILL B NO EUROPE OR IF EUROPEANS STOP IMPORTING GOODS FRM US THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE ECONOMY OF US

AND THE FUNNY THING IS
IF SAUDIS PULL BACK THERE MONEY FRM US THEN HEHEHEHAHAHAHA U KNOW WHAT US ECONOMY DEPENDS ON SAUDIS MONEY TOO COZ 6-7% OF US ECONOMY BELONGS TO SAUDIS MONEY IN US BANKS

so only if europe will leave its hands with Us then US will b no super power, but this US ko step brother Uk is playing villain part na, coz its not accepting euro bcoz it will affect US economy but guys dont worry coz its making Uk's economy weaker so now UK is also thinking to leave US and join europe

i look forward to that day when US will fall down so that many innocent people all around the world wont die of this selfish americans WAR FOR OIL motive. and if u still think US is great then go and watch the movie CONFIDENTIAL "FARHENHEIT 9/11"

Pisces,

Here's a news item that you might be interested in.

China, US discuss setting up defense hotline

By Xiong Zhengyan

BEIJING, Feb. 1 (Xinhuanet) -- Chinese Defense Ministry and its US counterpart rounded off their first special policy dialogue here Tuesday with both voicing their satisfactions, a sign of warming ties between two militaries of the two countries.
The two-day closed-door talk covered a wide range of issues, including the Taiwan issue, maritime military security and exchange programs in 2005, said a Chinese military spokesman Tu Qiming, who is in charge of the American and Oceanian affairs in the Foreign Affairs Office (FAO) under the Chinese Defense Ministry.

The two sides had "a very clear and direct exchange," said Deputy Under Secretary of US Defense Ministry Richard Lawless, who was leading the US side in this security dialogue.

We are "pleasantly surprised and pleased" with many issues being discussed and we know we are "successful in some areas," said Lawless, who is responsible for the Asia Pacific region in the US defense ministry.

The Chinese side is satisfied with the dialogue, as the meeting was conducted in a "candid, cooperative and constructive" atmosphere and the result is "fruitful," Tu gave a media briefing,after Deputy Chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Xiong Guangkai held a talk with Lawless Tuesday morning.

The US officials here are "very representative, which demonstrates our desire to have a very good exchange," Lawless told Xiong, adding the United States would like to push forward the military exchanges at various levels.

Noting the Taiwan issue remains "the biggest factor" affecting China-US relations, Xiong said China hopes the United States will honor its commitment to adhering to the one-China policy, observing the three Sino-US joint communiques and opposing "Taiwan independence".

Lawless said the United States "hopes the Taiwan issue can be peacefully resolved."

According to Tu's briefing Monday, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld expressed the interest to visit China this year, but the exact date was still under discussion.

"Both sides agreed to promote their military ties through more pragmatic exchanges," Tu said.

This year will see exchanges of top military officials, professional staffs and military institutions between the two militaries, Tu said.

Citing the on-going communication between the two ministries as"smooth," Tu said installing a hotline between the two ministries is under discussion.

Tu also said the two sides did not touch upon the European Union's arms embargo against China or nuclear issues on the KoreanPeninsula.

Last week, a US delegation headed by former US Defense Secretary William Perry came to east China's Shanghai for a seminar on Sino-US security.

Perry was also hosted by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and Chinese Defense Minister Cao Gangchuan. Enditem

newsweek's latest issue on China. HIGHLY RECCOMMENDED, especially Zakaria's article.

also listen to the radio program which can be downloaded from the Newsweek site.

all the more awesome..

China is half the way there already..they tested their economic strenght the other day and pulled down their currency value..one sec later the dollar dipped in Nasdaq..all ties are linked with import exports ..manufacturing of china..

Now uS's econmony alos depends on india..for all employement..the skilled laboroers are more there..

as for gas prices dipping down most consumers are looking at prius or hybrids from where else but Japan...

the stronger these three tigers get the better it is for countries like us...

Japan is loaning a bunch of money to Nepal..we should think loan not as a debt but as a leverage..money grows money..if you have the input there wud be an output..MOst european countries are vying thus for nepal inorder to get triple benefits from india, china and japan, as nepal would be low-risk low-investment projects...

US trying to make Nepal as an army base camp ..bush wants to start a ww4 from there..

now so many countries have interest in us..it is therefore with us the power to manipulate their interest for our benfits..people like girija and GYAN bahadur have minute brains that they only think about their minute selfish gains..

IT is time for us to understand and lead..nepalese people to the foregraound..that we encourage stronghold or epicentre of all trades in ASIA..doing so will able to dimish debt, poverty and of course GYANE CHOR/GIRIJA can also have a slice of the cake...EQUALLY..like everyone else..

I'll get more detail in pointing out strategies on How to make Nepal richer and wiser in TEN YEARS!!..if anyboy is with me please feel free to add in suggestion and i'll pull up a new thread....

EDUCATION/ERRORS/experience come handy sometimes...

your pupil
hp

In five years china will out wit US and become the number one trade partner with South American nations which would directly be a threat for US capability to mount economic hegemony (CHINA SYNDROME). South American nations are known for having huge copper, steel and other minerals, natural gas and petroleum resources. China recently signed a free trade treaty with Chili and other South American nations and become only second country to do so. Days are not far way for China to become super power (at least economic superpower and this would be a great leap towards becoming robust superpowers in decades to come)

Nut

spelling correction:
far away=distant

any China expert and specialists in here? would like to hear their view.

there is no doubt that in sheer size, the chinese economy is probably going to be at least as big as the US economy in the next 10-15 years. however, this does not make it into a economic superpower. to being with, on last count, china has almost one billion more people than the US. so any kind of economic superpower celebrity status is a long way off china and the chinese people. i think the further away it is, the more risk there is that things might go wrong for the chinese. i mean comeon, there is no way they can sustain 9% growth rates for the next 6-7 years on a row. that just won't happen.

also, there is a tendency to apply a monolithic approach when it comes to china. well the communist party does not help, but china really is not as heterogeneous as sometimes it is made out to be in the US media. there is vast inequality within the chinese economy and this is something that has been giving the chinese economists quite a bit of headache.

finally, the question is not only will china become a superpower but also will it want to become one? at least in the sense we define superpower right now. sure it is a little touchy when it comes to taiwan and japan. but these are old issues and very hard to let go because of all the sentimentality involved. on all other fronts, the 'leadership model' adopted by the chinese seems drastically different from that of the US. just look at the 'observer' status it maintains in asean for example. or the response to the coup - 'internal affairs' - very typically chinese, and not surprising at all. they almost seem to be at pains in a lot of different occassions to establish their modesty at every possible juncture. of course just the sheer scale of things it needs to achieve, economically or otherwise, is mind-boggling to anyone. and the chinese seem to be acutely aware of that. in other words, their modus operandi is strikingly different from the all-meddling, all-pressure, all-preachy model of the americans. personally, i am starting to think that race has something to do with this for that is for another day.

btw, is dollar devaluation now all but inevitable? funny how things come back to haunt people. i remember the summer of 2003, washington was just all agog with the diagnosis that a weak yuan is the ruin of US economy. to me it just seemed like a vain attempt to recapture the glory days, something that is not going to happen unless they want the old days with all the bells and whistles - i mean come on now, US consumption has increased because of cheap china. but now that everyone knows the chinese hold huge dollar reserves, any indication from beijing of revaluation will induce the decline of dollar vis-a-vis every other major currency. will this prompt a dollar meltdown? perhaps not, but will it erode the US economy, for sure yeah. how much? well, we'll just have to wait and see, i guess. unless we have some china expert in here to tell us better.

errata:

to being with = to begin with
china is not heterogeneous = china is not homogeneous

here's the link for Newsweek article on China :

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/7693580/site/newsweek/

"finally, the question is not only will china become a superpower but also will it want to become one? at least in the sense we define superpower right now. sure it is a little touchy when it ...almost seem to be at pains in a lot of different occassions to establish their modesty at ...., all-preachy model of the americans. personally, i am starting to think that race has something to do with this for that is for another day. "

Tired,

Good points. I agree with you for the most part but there are some minor disagreements. I will post my reply soon. Its break here, so enough time to browse and post messages in Sajha..


Hushhappy,

"US trying to make Nepal as an army base camp ..bush wants to start a ww4 from there"
- When was the World War III? :-)

I think Nepal would be the worst choice to start World War IV.

Briliant Article by Mr. Fareed Zakaria ... Thanx for sharing -- ISO..

Ya i can figure out that easily...... even in this highly developed country, when i buy daily items and look at back...i can see at most of the items "Made in China"