Hey U all there! What do u think about The People Republic of China becoming superpower later in this century? What would be the likely changes in the dynamics of world politics and security in such a changed scenario? Could you make any hypothetical assumption of such transformation? What would be the fate of the US glory? Is this transformation would be easily achieved? Can you imagine, US becoming something like The Great Britain now stands (US becoming unconditional supporter/ally)? What would be the overall prosperity of Asians? What would be the role of Nepal? Nepal would be able to formulate its policies as a sovereign and independent country? What would be the challenges and prospects of Nepal by then?

Nut

so if things remain the way they are, China will have no problems becoming a major regional player and an important global player, but a long way to go to (and many hurdles to clear) befor becoming another US.

If anyone is interested:


Xu Zhihong, the president of Peking University, will speak on Monday,
January 31 on "Peking University and the Higher Education and Economic
Development of China."

The lecture will take place at 2:15 pm in the Colony Ballroom of the
Stamp Student Union at the University of Maryland.


--

Christine Moritz
Communications Officer
University of Maryland
Office of International Programs
1122 Holzapfel Hall
College Park, MD 20742
Editor, MARYLAND INTERNATIONAL
301-405-4771 TEL
301-405-4773 FAX
http://www.intprog.umd.edu

once china becomes superpower the following changes can happen to Nepal:

Long lines for visa application in front of the chinese embassy in Bhatbhateni instead of lazimpat and Lainchaur.

Nepalese living in US and Europe packing their luggage for a new life in Shanghai.

English medium schools changed into chinese medium school.

Kodari Rajmarga renovated into 12 lane NC 25 superhighway linking Beijing to Birgunj via Kathmandu.

A cinostar metro rail service surrounding nepal tibet taiwan and china - fare 2 yuan per ride.

Nepal becoming the global transit point to businessmen,tourists, scholars, students and forget not migrant seeking refuge in China.

A superfast cable car service from Ktm to mt. everest to beijing and back affordable only for a hundred thousand yuan.

1 yuan= 3 nepalese rupees=74 us dollar.

a transatlantic, transindian, transpacific missile tracking unit build up in Tudikhel and monitored by scientist of Nepali origin in Beijing.

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And finally sajha.com operated from tibet with added features of free of charge telephone kurakani to all the workless, talkative , lazybones like us.
Long live Chinese economic growth.
Long live the surging power of China

Xu Zhihong is a bio-chemistry-genetics scientist. A very resected scholar in his field.

new user..that was funny.

What a wonderful opportunity to almost totallly agree with ISO! I cherish it!

I don't have much time to indulge in a lengthy discussion here, but just a couple of quick comments:

>> Isolated Freak: "America became a superpower because of it's strategic location."

and,

"1. It won't be on the best American interests if China becomes a superpower.
2. Japan will be an obstacle in China's rise.
3. Russia will not want a superpower in it's neighborhood.
4. Any rise in China's defense capacity will alter the regional balance of pwoer.. and India will have to increase its defense standing, and Pakistan will be forced to do so, just to maintain the balance of power in South Asia."

I couldn't agree with you more on both of the above, ISO. Even though strategic geopolitics, which is the key to becoming a superpower, includes much more than just geographic location, the latter definitely plays a large and very important role in the former. The US remaining territorially unaffected (due to to it's strategic isolation) by the two world wars definitely helped it become powerful enough to ensure it's control over the world until now. On the second quote, however, I have this to say:

It is very true that one country becoming a superpower can hardly be conceived as beneficial to it's rivals. The countries you have mentioned -- Russia, Japan, US, India -- and may I add possibly the EU too -- may very well cringe at the idea that China becomes much more powerful than it is today. However, I personally doubt that they can do anything more than just make it difficult for China to rise: once can only put some pressures and play some clever games to slow the inevitable, but can they stop it? I doubt it. It's like watching a Tsunami approaching -- you can either run, or begin to hastily build stronger walls to protect yourself, but sooner or later the waves will overwhelm you.

Economic analysts have already predicted that the Chinese Yuan will take over US dollar as a major currency of the world within the next 25-30 years. (I can't remember exactly where I read it -- most likely The Economist) Recent Chinese purchase of the IBM, and it's powerful moves to build strong economic alliance with the Latin American giants (not only for oil, but also for steel and other raw materials that Brazil, Argentina and Chile have plenty of) are strong indications that China has a long term stragegic plan to at least rival the only superpower, if not topple it.

China is not foolish enough either to proclaim it's intentions -- raato jhanda koushi ma farfaraundai -- outright and take aggressive moves to achieve it's goals, which they seem to know will only backfire. So far, they have clearly demonstrated their adriotness in carefully maneuvering political and diplomatic fronts, while going forth with building rapid and strong economic strategy.

Therefore, yes the difficulties will be there, some of them extreme; and achieving political and military superiority may not be as easy as acquiring economic superiority, but China, as I see it, is definitely on the path towards becoming as powerful, if not more, as the US, call it becoming a superpower or else. And, as I said earlier, the rivals can be apprehensive about China's growth, but they can do little to stop it. Slow it down a bit, they may.

aru ni dherai lekhna man thiyo...tyam maru!

so free tibet is out of the ?
haina ramrari sodhya, since u guys seem to know
a lot about geo-politics and the like. what is your views on the future
of tibet. or should we all stfu about it, cause there's $$$$'s concerned.

tibet is tranforming rapidly.
as the research laboratory of the chinese government

Poonte bro,

Great comments/freedback.

but China, as I see it, is definitely on the path towards becoming as powerful, if not more, as the US, call it becoming a superpower or else. And, as I said earlier, the rivals can be apprehensive about China's growth, but they can do little to stop it. Slow it down a bit, they may.

Then let me ask you one question here: Does becoming a superpower involve/include becoming a hegemon? Neo-realists say, yes it does. Look at Russia and America (Russia controlled East Europe, America controlled the rest of the world. Now, who is China going to control and don't you think that by the time China reaches it's peak, America and Russia will be way ahead of China, making China constantly aware of its lack of defense technology? ) And China's lack of interest in this regard, i.e., hegemony is quite noteworthy. Also the whole world, including China now subscribes to the American dominated market ideology which is diffefrent than the cold war, where the world was divided into 2 blocs.

Maybe, China will be the only benevolent superpower in the history of international system and will be promoting liberalism and free trade all over, but this will only make teh America's job easier, hoina? Tyasaile, I personally think that, if the situation remains the way it is now, China will definatley become a major economic power just like Japan and the US, but to become a superpower +hegemon, it still has a long way to go.

market ideology which is diffefrent than the cold war, where the world = where hoina, WHEN

Maybe, China will be the only benevolent superpower in the history of international system and will be promoting liberalism and free trade all over, but this will only make teh America's job easier, hoina? Tyasaile, I personally think that, if the situation remains the way it is now, China will definatley become a major economic power just like Japan and the US, but to become a superpower +hegemon, it still has a long way to go.

kasto dherai typo error..

Maybe, China will be the only benevolent superpower in the history of international system and will be promoting liberalism and free trade all over, but this will only make America's job easier, hoina? Tyasaile, I personally think that, if the situation remains the way as it is now, China will definatley become a major economic power just like Japan, Germany and the US, but to become a superpower +hegemon, it still has a long way to go.

What a wonderful opportunity to almost totallly agree with ISO! I cherish it!

Maybe we've been raeding the same books on this topic :-).

and the inhabitants of said country are lab rats??
tyehi bhanna khojeko mr niu user.

To underestimate China's strength will be a colossal error of judgement from the part of analysts of international affairs.
In the end of the 80's and the Tiananmen(spellin?) square incident, did anyone think that China would grow this rapidly?
China will not only supercede the US economically but militarily and polictically in few decades thats for sure.

Now China is focussed in the development of infrastructures and give the country a modern look. Once this is completed, it will start to show its military capabilities.

US will always be confronting the Muslim world and China will garner their support to match US in terms of making more foreign allies.Japan will one day think that China is near to it in cultural and civilizational terms and turn its back to US and join hands with China.

By then more then half of The daily conjumption of the world will be the exports from china and us will stand up with just with a backbone supported by the ribs of its arms market. Then China would create more sophisticated weaponry and invade the weapon market as well.
Finally as some 2000 years ago, China will be the centre of world civilization and development again and the US will remain as it did till the 17 th century.

ehh he j payo tei. akhir ma pani kaha kam chhu ra

tibetans have been the guinea pig for the last few years. dont u agree???

new user,

good points.

To underestimate China's strength will be a colossal error of judgement from the part of analysts of international affairs.

Agreed.


In the end of the 80's and the Tiananmen(spellin?) square incident, did anyone think that China would grow this rapidly?
Not many people thought about this except for Deng Xiaoping. Read his Martial Law declaration speech. One of the raesons the Tiananmen happened was that the state wanted to carry on with the economic reforms.


China will not only supercede the US economically but militarily and polictically in few decades thats for sure.

No one can predict the future, but I think it's very unlikely that China will supercede the US that easily.. or within a matter of few deceades. Its going to take much longer.

Now China is focussed in the development of infrastructures and give the country a modern look. Once this is completed, it will start to show its military capabilities.

You are right but by the tim China starts tos how its defense capabilities, the US and Russia will have even better capabilities. So your argument is flawed: The US and Russia will not just say, we have had enough of defense capabilkities, let's justs top.. no way. They will keep on inventing new devices and improving the old ones.

Japan will one day think that China is near to it in cultural and civilizational terms and turn its back to US and join hands with China.

Not necessarily. Japan and China have a very troubled past. If it happens, its good. But as far as I can see, its going to take much longer than you think. Also will Japan want another major player in Asia which will undermine its strength? No. Japan will do whatever it can to stop China from becoming a major player, which in turn will lead to more political and social problems.

ehh he j payo tei. akhir ma pani kaha kam chhu ra

chaina bro, kaam chaina.. badhi nai cha..:-) jawos, yahako aru idea pani jawos. so that we all can benifit from each other's ideas. let's help each other learn.. ora s the Chinese would say, huxiang bangzhu ba!

China's angry young focus their hatred on old enemy

Anti-Japanese fury is rising among internet users - a trend the state is keen to encourage

Justin McCurry in Tokyo and Jonathan Watts in Beijing
Thursday December 30, 2004
The Guardian

At 27 years old, Song Yangbiao is already earning a salary that his parents can only have dreamed of. He is better educated, more widely travelled and can expect to live a longer, healthier, wealthier life than any generation in Chinese history. You might think he is also more content. You would be wrong. Mr Song is not happy. He is furious.
So furious that he spends more than five hours every day venting his frustrations on the internet, where he has set up a site for tens of thousands of like-minded young Chinese people to air their grievances. So vitriolic and widespread are their web-based protests that the domestic media have labelled the affluent, academic and internet-savvy generation that they represent as the "angry young".

Like their namesakes in Britain in the 1950s, China's angry young men and women are the products of a fast-changing society in which rising expectations for the future contrast starkly with frustrations about the past and present. In private, their anger is amorphous, multi-faceted and idealistic. But in public, which usually means internet bulletin boards, their scope to let off steam is largely limited to nationalism. The explosive growth of the web in China, where the number of users is growing by more than 25% a year, is often cited by advocates of political reform as a source of hope for greater openness in the world's last big communist state.

But there is increasing evidence that the opposite may be true. Sites advocating democracy, religious freedom or union rights are closed down by the authorities and their operators often arrested. But there are countless sites like Mr Song's devoted to one of the few political passions permitted by the government: hatred for Japan.

Every day on the "My View of Japan" bulletin board, Mr Song and his contributors post reports of perceived slights by their neighbours, who are referred to at least once as "shitty little Japanese". Many predict that military conflict is inevitable, and some wish it would come sooner rather than later. "I'm 30 and a fire burns in my heart," writes one contributor. "Only war can extinguish these flames."

While hate-mongering is a feature of extremist internet chatrooms around the world, in China such inflammatory comments appear to represent anything but a small minority. In the past two years, small anti-Japanese protests have mushroomed into nationwide campaigns through the internet and mobile phone text messages.

Mr Song believes anger is natural, given what he sees as Japan's failure to properly atone for atrocities carried out by its troops during their occupation of China. "It is not the elderly who hate Japan, but those who were born in the 70s and 80s. We have grown up in a fast-developing country, but even though our country gets stronger and stronger, we have not been able to shed the humiliations of history and the fact that our persecutor has never admitted his crimes," says the bespectacled journalist. "The killers who slaughtered our people have escaped punishment and now live comfortably. Even if the government can accept that, we cannot."

Such views are common among China's young, and they are increasingly evident at a government level. Economically, ties have never been better. Japan is China's largest business partner, with bilateral trade rising by more than 30% in 2003 to a record 130bn yen (?650m). But political relations between Asia's two most powerful nations are at their lowest point for decades.

China's leaders have refused regular summit meetings with Japan's prime minister, Junichiro Koizumi, since 2001, when he began annual visits to the controversial Yasukuni shrine to Japan's fallen soldiers, including war criminals.

"What we have now is a relationship that is economically warm and politically cold," said Professor Zhou Yongsheng from China Foreign Affairs University. "It is abnormal that the leaders of two such important nations have not met each other for three years other than on the sidelines of international conferences."

Compromise


The deterioration of relations is largely the result of one of the world's biggest diplomatic fudges. Japan's postwar restoration of diplomatic relations with its neighbours was based on top-level compromise rather than grassroots penitence. Instead of paying compensation - which would imply guilt - the government offered trillions of yen in economic aid.

This satisfied government leaders in Beijing, who used the money for dams, bridges and other prestige projects, but the Chinese public has been left largely unaware that their nation's economic growth has been partly bankrolled by Tokyo. Despite 3 trillion yen (?15bn) in grants and cheap loans over the past 25 years, few know that Xian, Xianyang and Guangzhou airports, as well as numerous other giant infrastructure projects, were built with Japanese money.

Mr Koizumi hinted last month that aid to China - which has been steadily cut over the past four years - could soon come to an end. The Japanese military named China as a threat for the first time in its latest defence white paper.

Hisahiko Okazaki, a Japanese security analyst, said China had "artificially rekindled" public hostility towards Tokyo. "The government sponsored a patriotic movement and the main target was Japan. Events had faded from people's memories, but the government revived them and made it into a national movement."

Chinese nationalist groups say it has become easier to operate since president Hu Jintao and prime minister Wen Jiabao came to power last year. "The new leadership have a stronger feeling of nationalism than their predecessors. So we have more space to carry out our activities," said Tong Zeng, founder of a group campaigning to reclaim a disputed island chain in the East China Sea, known as Senkaku in Japan and Diaoyu in China.

In the past, government restrictions on anti-Japanese activity forced Mr Tong and his group to travel to Hong Kong to hire a boat to land on the islands, but now, he said, they can openly hire a boat on the mainland. Protests outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing used to be quickly broken up by police, but this year at least 10 have been permitted. Local media coverage has increased.

This partly reflects an easing of restrictions in many areas of Chinese public life. But many observers believe the Communist party is channelling public frustration into anti-Japanese xenophobia. "The ideological rationale of the Communist party has collapsed. This is one of the most divided and least egalitarian nations on earth," said a Beijing-based diplomat. "So the Communist party's legitimacy is now more dependent on its historical opposition to Japan."

With historical differences still far from solved and the two rivals increasingly competing for energy resources and political leadership in Asia, Mr Song predicts the nationalist passions of China's "angry youth" will grow.

"I think our hatred towards Japan is the inevitable consequence of growing Chinese power and democratisation," he said. "It is time that the world heard the voice of the Chinese public as well as the Chinese government. The two are not the same. You might even say they are disharmonious."

In 'the clash of civilizations' Huntington opines that the world order for the new millenium will be set according to the interest of civilization and not political ideology. Henry Kissinger and Frances Fukuyama have the similar kind of vision for the next century and I am convinced with the perceptions of these people. And can't agree in principals with isolated freak that Japan will and can oppose to China's expansion of power and authority in the longer term.
In internation relations Geographical location has much to do and hence once China reaches the pinnacle of it's economic success( which it is set achieve before 2050), Japan will have to tilt towards China. As will Korean peninsula, indonesia, thailand , malaysia, singapore and even india and pakistan. Just see how effectively has the US handled the relation with canada, mexico, south america and carribean. No powers except the US can extract there support. Likewise, China will make a strong allegiance to the the south east and south asian regions.
One more thing, the world is being more resistant to the US hegemony now then ever before. The US is making more foes and this factor will help China to achieve it's super power ambitions sooner then generally expected. And if the number of UN security council is doubled in few years to come , the grip of US on major international affair will gradually get loose.
SO frens start learning mandarin and the CHinese culture!!!

security council members rather